Thursday, August 07, 2008 - 07:26 PM

But is a top-16 finish in medal standings realistic?

BEIJING - It is Adam vanKoeverden ... and then who?

That is the great Canadian question on the eve of the Summer Olympics.

A question the Canadian Olympic Committee will shuffle around with at a Thursday morning news conference but has steadfastly refused to answer. For the first time in a long time, the COC will not get in the game of making medal predictions for Canadians - saying only it is hopeful of a slightly optimistic Top 16 performance by Team Canada at these Games.

The COC won't reveal its possible medal count - so instead, we'll do it for them. The number is 14, give or take an upset.

That's two more medals than Canada managed four years ago in Athens and significantly less than the 22 Canada won in Atlanta 12 years ago.

And while Canada should win more medals here than the great Michael Phelps - it almost certainly won't win more gold.

“I like our team,” said Chris Rudge, chief executive officer of the COC. “I think this is one of the deepest Olympic teams Canada has ever had. We may not have the names (people know) but I love the attitude we have towards competition. Sometimes you can have the big names and it doesn't work out.”

Four years ago, they had names people knew. Perdita Felicien, expected to win, tripped and fell.

Alexandre Despatie, expected for gold and silver, picked the wrong time to take a dive. Defending Olympic champion, Simon Whitfield, placed 11th.

If there are similar expectations now, they begin and end with vanKoeverden, the world champion kayaker and Canadian flag bearer, who is favoured to win at least one gold medal at these Games and quite possibly a second. That should be two medals to start.

The men's eights rowing team - favoured to win in Athens and blew up really badly - has won everything since then. They should come through with a medal here of some colour. That brings the total to three.

After that, more questions. The trampoline people - and yes, there are such things here - contend they are capable of three medals. But most organizations tend to exaggerate their chances.

In fairness we'll give them one medal, quite possibly coming from Karen Cockburn, who has been to the podium in each of the past two Summer Games.

That brings the total to four. The track and field team, which is hopeful of winning two medals here, has contenders in 400 metre runner Tyler Christopher, 800 metre runner Gary Reed and hurdler Angela Whyte. All of them are superb athletes. The trouble in track is, the fields are stacked.

Don't count on any Canadian medals from the track.

The swimming pool is another matter: The Canadian program is on the rise but nowhere near where it has to be to challenge the Americans and Australians. The big hope in swimming is Brent Hayden, he of the television commercials. He is considered a real contender in the 200 metre race and relay of the same length. We'll mark that down as two Canadian medals. That brings the number to six.

Diving used to be something of a Canadian staple. But Despatie's time has almost come and gone and the Chinese happen to specialize in the events he specializes in. Still, two diving medals are realistic here - possibly one from Blythe Hartley and the other from the men's synchronized team of Despatie and Arturo Miranda. Add those two medals and the total is up to eight.

After that, it's even more of a guessing game. But there are enough contenders - Samantha Cools in BMX cycling; Daniel Nestor and Frederic Niemeyer in doubles tennis; the once-disgraced Eric Lamaze in equestrian; Anna Rice in badminton; Karine Sergerie in tae kwon do; Elsye Hopfner-Hibbs in gymnastics; the softball team; Whitfield in triathlon; defending gold medal winner, Kyle Shewfelt in gymnastics and possibly a team medal; somebody in women's wrestling; and additional medals in rowing or canoe/kayak.

If only half of those come through with a podium finish, there's your 14 medals.